Saturday, July 23, 2005

Global Warming - Science or Science Fiction?

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Is Global warming real? Can we change it? Is it our fault?

"A team led by University of Maine scientists has reported finding a potential link between changes in solar activity and the Earth's climate. … The researchers' goal is to understand what drives the Earth's climate system without taking increases in greenhouse gases into account, says Mayewski. 'There are good reasons to be concerned about greenhouse gases, but we should be looking at the climate system with our eyes open,' he adds." - source

Their research suggests that climate changes are cyclic and the sun effects these changes in drastic ways.
They are backed up by other research from around the world.


"Since the middle of the last century, the Sun is in a phase of unusually high activity, as indicated by frequent occurrences of sunspots, gas eruptions, and radiation storms. Researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (MPS) in Katlenburg-Lindau (Germany) and at the University of Oulu (Finland) have come to this conclusion after they have succeeded in reconstructing the solar activity based on the sunspot frequency since 850 AD. … The temporal variation in the solar activity displays a similarity to that of the mean temperature of the Earth." - source

Hmmm, global warming could be a natural cycle?

Several other articles and sources exist that explain that while we contribute to global warming we have not appreciably speed up the cycle, and that it is a cyclic effect, not a permanent change, that occurred well before man modernized, and likely will continue to occur without our presence. Has anyone here heard of the multiple ice ages? They occurred with out us. Weather shifts, the environment shifts, we are making little to no dent in the overall picture.

The solutions to the "problems", treaties like Kyoto, are having little positive environmental effect, and possibly huge economic effect.

"This report is the annual submission of the greenhouse gas inventory of the European Community to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It presents greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and 2003 by individual Member State and by economic sector. The report shows that, between 2002 and 2003, emissions in the 15 old member states increased by 53 million tons, or 1.3% and total EU emissions increased by 1.5%." - source

"…Relying on numbers from the Clinton Administration, the chairman of the White House Council of Environmental Quality recently told Congress that if the U.S. ratified the Kyoto Protocol it would cost our economy up to 400 billion dollars and cause the loss of almost five million jobs." - source
So there are those out there willing to spend 400 billion dollars and lose 5 Million jobs over a natural cycle of the earth? Talk about being out of synch.

I am not willing to take such radical risks over something that has very little steam behind it, and that more and more we are finding occurs with or without our interference. Mother Earth is much stronger than we give her credit for. We are finding more and more that God's crown jewel creation is more miraculous than we ever thought. She self heals and self corrects. While we must be mindful of what we do for our own comfort (most animals don't like to sit in their own waste), and we should be mindful of our own resources (there is a limited supply of fossil fuels), we should also not loose our heads and have knee-jerk reactions to long-term science.

So to answer my own questions, is it real? Yes it is, it has been around however for millennia.

Can we change it? Yes, but only slightly, we should be much more concerned about our own air quality and limited resources.

Is it our fault? No, not really.

Zaphriel - Birth of a Neocon


I have seen studies that claim its the end of the world coming, and other scientist prove it as false. Back and forth. Personally, I think the liberal cry that the sky is falling is overexaggerated. On the other hand, I don't have anything against efforts to improve the environment. There really isn't much we can do about it, but hey, lets fight it...I'm all for it. However, lets always carefully weigh our priorities. Start riding your bike to work before you point fingers at me driving my car.

Jay - Stop the ACLU

Is the Earth getting warmer? Or is it getting colder? Will we run out of fossil fuels in the next ten years, the next hundred, or, as some environmentalists confidently predicted in the 70's and 80's, did we already run out as of the year 2000? And what about the rain forests? Supposedly they are being destroyed faster than we can replenish them. In fact, if you listen to the leftist environmentalists, they may already be gone. And the oceans? Dead, or dying, with no hope of recovery.
No hope.
All gone.
Oh, and one more thing.
It's your fault. And mine.
And only through your generous contributions, or tax money, given to your favorite radical environmentalist lobbying group can the planet be saved.

There is a vested interest in pessimism for the special interest group known as environmentalism. The radical environmentalist agenda is a buisness, and a profitable one for groups like GreenPeace, The Sierra Club, and others on the left. And the only way to keep the contributions coming in is to ratchet up the fear, to increase the panic. Even at the cost of telling the truth.

But, like Chicken Little, the cries of the leftist environmentalists are wearing thin, as some scientists are beginning to break free of the politically correct shackles that have kept them from examining the facts without bias. The following is an incomplete list of a few of those scientists and think tanks that have decided to look at the facts, rather than the fear:

The Pacific Research Institute releases a yearly study, examining the lateston the environment, and the hype that keeps the dollars flowing to the leftist extremists. Their most recent report can be found here.

NewEnvironmentalism.org is a think tank dedicated to exploring free market solutions to real environmental problems, rather than the over-hyped ones created by the left. The links section is worth reading in and of itself.

Of course there is Bjorn Lomborg, author of The Skeptical Environmentalist, who systematically takes apart the scare stories of the leftist environmentalists in a way few others could.

And one of my favorite sites is JunkScience.com. They not only take on the leftist environmentalists, but much of the mythology of the nanny society being thrust upon us all.

Few topics raise the hysteria level more than the mythos of Global Warming and environmental collapse. And even fewer have so little basis in real scientific inquiry. The first rule of a healer is "First Do No Harm." By allowing the Left to control this issue for so long, we run the risk of ignoring real environmental problems in favor of those issues that can raise the most hype, and contributions, for the leftist organizations dependent on the hysteria. And in so doing, hurting the very planet we are trying to save.

Mark - Liberty Just In Case


Great topic Zaph. There is much too much blind hysteria surrounding what I believe to be one of the great canards of our time. Indeed, those scientists in Europe are not alone in their skepticism:
At a news conference held in Ottawa, some of North America's foremost climate experts provided evidence demonstrating that the science underlying the Kyoto Protocol is seriously flawed; a problem that continues to be ignored by the Canadian government.
Some of us have been pointing this out for years. There are so many problems with the theories produced that it is almost incomprehensible that so many governments, pseudo-governments (UN) and environmental groups ran with this.
Carleton University Professor Tim Patterson (Paleoclimatologist) explains the crucial importance of properly evaluating the merit of Canada's climate change plans: "It is no exaggeration to say that in the eight years since the Kyoto Protocol was introduced there has been a revolution in climate science. If, back in the mid-nineties, we knew what we know today about climate, Kyoto would not exist because we would have concluded it was not necessary."
Hopefully more scientists will see this as a call to come out of the closet, so to speak. The "global warming" hysteria has had far too many truly objective scientists afraid to speak out for fear of losing government grants and unwarranted hazing from scientists riding the GW gravy train.
Contrary to claims that the science of climate change has been settled, the causes of the past century's modest warming is highly contested in the climate science community. The climate experts presenting in the video demonstrate that science is quickly diverging away from the hypothesis that the human release of greenhouse gases, specifically carbon dioxide, is having a significant impact on global climate. "There is absolutely no convincing scientific evidence that human-produced greenhouse gases are driving global climate change", stated climatologist, Dr. Tim Ball.
In the halls of Turtle Bay and the streets of Paris and Berlin, people would have you believe that human caused global warming is as much a fact as gravity. Perhaps more bravery like that shown by these scientists will bring those people back to reality. Hell, who am I kidding, people treat environmentalism like religion.

Indeed, the effects of signing on to Kyoto are already taking their toll on countries such as New Zealand which is estimated to account for about .2% of global greenhouse emissions:
The cost of a Government Kyoto Protocol botch-up could soar as high as $1.2 billion, more than double that estimated by the Treasury last month, a new report claims.

The Government last month admitted that it had miscalculated New Zealand's greenhouse gas growth, for which it is liable under the Kyoto Protocol, resulting in an embarrassing $500 million bill rather than a $500m credit.

But the situation could be even worse, accounting giant PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) says.

The PWC analysis shows the company believes the $500m bill estimate is also wrong. It believes the liability will be more like $1.2b to $1.7b above the original estimate.
That is just one country, and a small one at that. My guess is that we will soon start hearing about more and more of the negative impact ratifying Kyoto is having on world economies.

Liberty Dog - One Billion Red Chinese and a Dog Named Liberty


I want to be short and to the point about global warming because I've blogged on the subject so many times before. Here it goes.

Global warming is supported by both evidence that points to a human connection and also evidence that points to a cyclical explanation. It is or should be obvious that the truth is somewhere in the middle. Humans DO influence global warming, though the specific amount is not as yet determined. On the other hand, geographical and other data shows that ice ages come and go and have continually done so for the last few million years at least. This fact suggests that the majority of global warming may in fact be part of a cycle. However, it does not explain why global temperatures are rising at such extreme rates; In nature, such widespread changes are almost unheard of. This evidents that humans, while not the root cause, are in fact speeding up to some degree the natural process of global warming. This fact is glazed over by too many corporate researchers, GOP-oriented scientists and even many who simply don't understand what they are talking about. These individuals seek to downplay the human side of global warming in an attempt to justify the continued allowance of unrestricted or poorly restricted pollution into the environment as a method of saving profits. This is not, should not and by me, will not be tolerated. While we may not be the only or even the main cause of global warming, we ARE making it worse and we ARE destroying the environment. The more we damage the Earth, the more we weaken its ability to sustain us. Anyone who is willing to risk this all for profits shouldn't be in elected office and shouldn't be running a company.
That's all I have to say on the matter.

Joseph - The New Oklahoma Democrat
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